Bitcoin Falls Below $63K — History Warns of Further Downside to $50K

Bitcoin (BTC) dropped below $63,000 this Monday during Asian trading hours, extending a slide that has now pushed the world's largest cryptocurrency down nearly 7% for the week. BTC price today reflects levels not seen since February 6, when prices came close to testing the $60,000 mark. The latest leg of the Bitcoin sell-off 2026 comes as President Donald Trump's renewed tariff push and jitters surrounding the AI sector have weighed on risk appetite across global markets.

Bitcoin Extends Weekly Losses Amid Trump Tariff Shock

What Triggered Monday's Sell-Off?

Monday's crypto market downturn traces directly to two macro pressures: Trump tariffs and a broad retreat from AI-linked equities. President Donald Trump announced temporary 15% tariffs on imports from multiple countries, escalating from the 10% rate he had unveiled the previous Friday after the Supreme Court struck down his earlier tariff strategy. U.S. stocks fell sharply in response, and Bitcoin — increasingly correlated with risk assets — followed suit.

Kraken Analyst: $60,000 Support Is the Line in the Sand

Bitcoin's $60,000 support level is now the number every market participant is watching. Matt Howells-Barby, Vice President at Kraken, said in a statement that Monday's sharp pullback mirrors the tariff-driven volatility seen in April 2025. “Similar to equities, Bitcoin has had a sharp pullback today, driven largely by renewed tariff-related uncertainty, similar to the events of April 2025. Furthermore, ratcheting geopolitical tensions could likely prove bearish for BTC in the short-term,” Howells-Barby noted. He added that escalating geopolitical tensions compound the near-term bearish case for crypto.

What Happens If Bitcoin Loses $60K?

According to Howells-Barby, a confirmed close beneath the $60,000 floor would open the door to a move toward the Bitcoin $50,000 price target range — specifically the mid-to-low $50K zone. “If that level fails to hold, we could potentially see a move into the mid-to-low $50K range,” he said.

History Says Bitcoin Bear Markets Don't Bottom Until a Rare Moving-Average Crossover

What Is the 50-Week / 100-Week Bear Cross?

A Bitcoin bear market bottom has historically not formed until the Bitcoin 50-week moving average crosses below the 100-week moving average — an event traders call a BTC bear cross. Because moving averages are lagging indicators, this crossover does not predict future price action; rather, it confirms that a prolonged downtrend has already taken hold. Paradoxically, that confirmation is precisely what has marked durable bottoms in past cycles: the signal arrives after the worst of the selling, not before it.

When Has This Happened Before?

The bear cross pattern played out during the major Bitcoin downturns of both 2018 and 2022, marking the eventual floor in each case. Until the 100-week moving average is breached from above by the falling 50-week line, historical precedent suggests the market has not yet reached Bitcoin capitulation.

Bitcoin Price Outlook: Could BTC Fall to $50,000 or Lower in 2026?

Several analysts who spoke at Consensus Hong Kong before the recent drop warned that $50,000 — or even lower — is a plausible scenario if the moving-average bear cross materializes. That view aligns with the Kraken analyst's $60K breakdown scenario, suggesting the market faces meaningful downside risk before a lasting floor is established. As with any technical framework, however, past patterns carry no guarantee they will repeat; the Bitcoin price prediction 2026 landscape remains highly uncertain, and investors should weigh historical signals against present-day fundamentals.

Originally reported by CoinDesk.