Bitcoin Falls Below $63K — History Warns of Further Downside to $50K

Key Takeaways

$63,000 — Bitcoin drops below this key level on Monday as tariff fears and an AI-stock rout crush risk appetite
7% — BTC's weekly loss now stands at nearly seven percent, with prices back to February 6 territory
$60,000 — Kraken VP warns this support is the line in the sand; losing it could drag BTC toward $50,000
The 50-week / 100-week bear cross that confirmed bottoms in 2018 and 2022 has not yet triggered

Bitcoin (BTC) dropped below $63,000 during Monday's Asian session, extending a sell-off that has now erased nearly 7% this week. The BTC price today sits at levels not seen since February 6, when prices narrowly avoided testing $60,000. The slide deepened after President Donald Trump's tariff escalation collided with a retreat from AI-linked equities, fueling a broader crypto market downturn.

Bitcoin Extends Weekly Losses Amid Trump Tariff Shock

What Triggered Monday's Sell-Off?

The Trump tariffs crypto traders had feared landed Monday when the president imposed temporary 15% levies on imports — up from the 10% rate unveiled Friday after the Supreme Court struck down his earlier tariff strategy. U.S. equities tumbled and Bitcoin followed, compounding a Bitcoin weekly loss among the steepest of 2026. Investors also continued dumping AI-exposed shares, adding pressure across risk assets.

Kraken Analyst: $60,000 Support Is the Line in the Sand

The Bitcoin $60,000 support level is the number every trader is watching now. Matt Howells-Barby, Vice President at Kraken, told reporters that Monday's pullback mirrors the tariff-driven volatility of April 2025.

"Similar to equities, Bitcoin has had a sharp pullback today, driven largely by renewed tariff-related uncertainty, similar to the events of April 2025. Furthermore, ratcheting geopolitical tensions could likely prove bearish for BTC in the short-term." — Matt Howells-Barby

What Happens If Bitcoin Loses $60K?

A confirmed break beneath $60,000 would open the path toward the mid-to-low $50,000 range, Howells-Barby warned — a scenario that would place a Bitcoin $50,000 price target firmly in play.

History Says Bitcoin Bear Markets Don't Bottom Until a Rare Moving-Average Crossover

What Is the 50-Week / 100-Week Bear Cross?

A Bitcoin bear market bottom has historically not formed until the 50-week moving average crosses below the 100-week moving average — a BTC bear cross. Because moving averages are lagging indicators, this crossover confirms prolonged downtrends rather than predicting reversals. That means full Bitcoin capitulation may still lie ahead.

When Has This Happened Before?

The bear cross played out during the major downturns of 2018 and 2022, marking the absolute floor each time. Until the falling 50-week line breaches the 100-week moving average, history suggests the bottom is not yet in.

Bitcoin Price Outlook: Could BTC Fall to $50,000 or Lower in 2026?

Several analysts at Consensus Hong Kong warned that $50,000 — or lower — remains a realistic Bitcoin price prediction 2026 scenario if the bear cross materializes. That aligns with the Kraken analyst's $60K breakdown thesis. As with any technical framework, past patterns carry no guarantee of repeating — but traders ignore them at their own risk.

Originally reported by CoinDesk.