Bitcoin Bear Market May End if Bulls Reclaim $74.5K

Bitcoin's bear market may be approaching a turning point, with onchain data identifying $74,500 as the price level that could separate continued downside from a meaningful structural recovery. After plunging to $62,400 on Tuesday, BTC bounced roughly 7.45% over the following two days, yet remains well beneath the average cost basis for investors who accumulated during the past six months to two years. According to onchain metrics, reclaiming $74,500 on a sustained basis would return a large portion of this supply to profit and potentially remove a major source of selling pressure from the broader market.

Key Onchain Support Holds at $64,200

Bitcoin's realized price for coins aged 18 to 24 months currently sits near $64,200, a threshold the market tested earlier this week. Crypto analyst Anil noted that BTC dipped into this zone but managed to reclaim it by the daily close on Tuesday, keeping the support intact. Realized price tracks the average onchain acquisition cost for a specific UTXO age band, making it a closely watched gauge of investor sentiment and potential selling behavior.

When spot price trades below these cost basis levels, holders face unrealized losses and the probability of distribution rises sharply. A sustained position above the band tends to reduce investor anxiety and encourages re-accumulation. The defense of the $64,200 floor suggests buyers stepped in before the damage could extend into lower support zones, according to onchain analysts.

Why Is $74,500 the Line in the Sand?

The $74,500 level represents the realized price for a broader set of Bitcoin UTXOs aged six months to two years, capturing investors from the prior cycle's consolidation and breakout phases. This cohort's MVRV ratio — which compares market value to realized value — has dropped to 0.88, a reading below 1 that signals the group is holding at a loss on average. As BTC fell beneath this threshold, these holders collectively shifted into unrealized loss territory, turning $74,500 into a critical profitability boundary that could define the next directional move.

Should buyers absorb selling near this average entry price, the supply concentrated between $74,500 and $100,000 may thin out more rapidly than current market structure suggests. A sustained recovery above the threshold would return much of this cohort to aggregate profit, potentially alleviating sell-side pressure from holders eyeing exits near breakeven, according to CryptoQuant data. A decisive move higher could redirect market attention toward the significant liquidity clustered near the six-figure mark.

Long-Term Holders Keep Accumulating

Long-term holder balances have climbed back toward 14 million BTC, reaching approximately 13.96 million coins after declining to a multi-year low on November 21, 2025, according to CryptoQuant data. This recovery in aged supply points to continued coin dormancy despite recent price volatility, a pattern typically associated with conviction among seasoned market participants.

Meanwhile, the realized cap net position change has compressed toward zero percent, signaling that new capital inflows have become negligible. The realized cap — which measures the aggregate value of coins based on the price at which they last moved onchain — remains near cycle highs, though its expansion rate has slowed considerably. Historically, late bear market phases exhibit flat or contracting realized cap growth, while early recoveries begin with stabilization before acceleration. A renewed push back toward the 2-4% range would offer clearer confirmation that fresh capital is flowing in and broader accumulation has resumed, according to onchain researchers.

What Does This Mean for Bitcoin's Trend?

A sustained reclaim of $74,500 would be the strongest signal yet that Bitcoin's bear market is losing momentum, based on the weight of onchain evidence. If the cohort that purchased over the past six months to two years moves back into aggregate profit, the incentive to sell near breakeven diminishes significantly, potentially thinning resistance between current levels and $100,000.

However, compressed realized cap growth indicates new money is not yet flooding into the market. Until capital inflows reaccelerate toward the historical 2-4% expansion range, caution remains warranted. Traders should watch whether the bounce above $64,200 holds firm and whether bulls can build enough momentum to challenge the broader $74,500 barrier in coming weeks. An upcoming $10.5 billion Bitcoin options expiry could also inject significant volatility that tests these critical thresholds, according to market observers.