ETH's Next Big Move Relies on Daily Close Above $2.1K: Data

ETH price faces a pivotal test at the $2,100 level, with on-chain data suggesting a sustained daily close above this threshold could ignite the next major rally for Ether. The token touched $2,150 on Thursday, aligning with the realized price of whale wallets holding 100,000 ETH or more, but volatility across crypto and equity markets continues to pull the price below $2,000.

Why Is $2,100 Critical for ETH Price?

The $2,100 daily close level matters because it corresponds to the cost basis and realized price of wallets holding 100,000 ETH or more. Realized price tracks the last moved price of coins, functioning as a profitability gauge rather than a spot reference. When Ether trades above this mark, large holders are collectively in profit, which historically reduces sell pressure.

Since 2020, Ether has dipped below this whale cohort's realized price only a handful of times, most prominently during the 2022 bear market. Charts show the price has reliably bounced after testing this level as support. A confirmed daily close above $2,100 would signal that major holders have re-entered profitable territory, potentially fueling renewed accumulation.

Futures Data Signals Short Squeeze Momentum

CoinGlass data showed more than $220 million in short liquidations over the past two days, sweeping out overhead leverage from the ETH futures market. That clearing event has thinned sell-side resistance that had been capping price rebounds.

Futures analyst Dom described the setup as a clean opportunity for the broader market, pointing to an early-week sweep near range lows. According to Dom, price tapped the one-month rolling VWAP (volume-weighted average price) and the value area high, the upper boundary where most volume traded over the past month. Acceptance above $2,140 could mark a shift in short-term order flow, while failure to hold keeps Ether inside its established range.

On the downside, roughly $2.66 billion in cumulative long liquidation exposure sits near $1,800, forming a liquidity pocket below the current price, according to CoinGlass.

What Does the ETH Funding Rate Shift Mean?

The shift in Binance's ETH funding rate from deeply negative to positive territory at 0.23% signals that late short sellers were squeezed out, marking a meaningful change in derivatives sentiment. Earlier this month, aggressive shorts piled into Ether alongside a sharp price decline. Following Tuesday's drop below $1,800, the rate reversed course.

Analyst Pelin Ay pointed to this funding rate flip as a notable shift in market structure. While the positive reading suggests renewed bullish sentiment among futures traders, the elevated level carries risk. If long positioning becomes overcrowded, it raises the probability of a long squeeze near $1,800, particularly if momentum stalls.

ETH funding flipped sharply negative earlier this month as aggressive short positions piled in alongside Ether price weakness. Following Tuesday's drop below $1,800, the funding rate has since swung back into positive territory.

— Pelin Ay, Crypto Analyst

Technical Resistance Stands in the Way

Despite constructive futures positioning, Ether faces technical obstacles. Market analyst IncomeShark identified three hurdles, including repeated SuperTrend rejections and channel resistance near $2,250.

The SuperTrend indicator uses volatility, measured by the average true range (ATR), to define trend direction. When price trades below it, the line flips red and acts as dynamic resistance. Each rebound has been rejected at the red band, confirming sellers remain in control.

IncomeShark added that traders should watch whether Ether revisits the April lows around $1,500, a level within a weekly demand zone between $1,691 and $1,384. A successful retest could establish the floor needed before any sustained move above $2,500 takes shape, according to the analyst.

What This Means Going Forward

Ether's near-term trajectory hinges on whether bulls can sustain a daily close above $2,100, the whale realized price that has served as a reliable pivot since 2020. The clearing of $220 million in short liquidations and the funding rate flip both favor the bullish case, but elevated long positioning and SuperTrend rejections near $2,250 keep downside risk alive.

If buyers fail to defend $2,100, the $1,800 liquidity pocket where $2.66 billion in long exposure sits becomes the next battleground. A decisive close above $2,140 could shift order flow and open the path toward the $2,250 to $2,500 range in coming sessions.