Analysts Reject Jane Street 10 AM Bitcoin Dump Claims

Jane Street Bitcoin dump allegations have been dismissed by multiple market analysts who say data does not support claims of a coordinated 10 a.m. sell-off. The accusations surged on February 26 after Terraform Labs' court-appointed administrator filed a lawsuit against Jane Street, alleging insider trading linked to the May 2022 Terra stablecoin collapse. Despite viral posts claiming the quantitative trading firm engineers daily price drops at the US market open, researchers and on-chain data suggest the pattern is neither consistent nor attributable to any single entity.

Terraform Lawsuit Fuels Manipulation Narrative

The manipulation accusations exploded across social media one day after Terraform Labs' court-appointed administrator sued Jane Street over alleged insider trading connected to transactions that deepened the Terra algorithmic stablecoin implosion in May 2022. Crypto influencer Justin Bechler led the charge, arguing that Jane Street's reported $790 million stake in BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF, known as IBIT, could disguise a net short Bitcoin position through hedging instruments invisible in public regulatory filings.

Bechler contended that the filing reveals nothing about whether IBIT shares are offset by puts, short futures, or collar strategies. He argued the firm's actual exposure could be a substantial short position masquerading as a long because the offsetting trades fall outside current disclosure rules. This framing prompted widespread speculation that Jane Street was executing coordinated algorithmic selling of Bitcoin at 10 a.m. Eastern Standard Time to purchase the ETF at artificially depressed prices.

The actual position could be a massive short that looks like a long because the offsetting half of the trade is invisible under current disclosure rules.

— Justin Bechler, Crypto Influencer

Is Jane Street Manipulating Bitcoin at 10 AM Daily?

No credible evidence supports the claim that Jane Street is systematically dumping Bitcoin at the US market open each morning. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, cautioned that the activity Bechler described is a standard delta-neutral strategy employed by many quantitative funds seeking to capture spreads rather than make directional price bets. Buying spot exposure while selling futures is a common approach across institutional trading, according to Moreno.

On-chain analyst Nonzee posted an hourly Bitcoin chart on Wednesday claiming Jane Street had been manipulating the market at that window for months. Crypto watcher account Whale Factor alleged Bitcoin consistently registered a 2% to 3% daily decline minutes after the US open since early November. Whale Factor pointed to Jane Street's reported $2.5 billion-plus position in BlackRock's IBIT as the suspected mechanism behind what they called engineered liquidity sweeps to accumulate spot ETF shares at a discount.

Jane Street's most recent 13-F filing also revealed holdings in Strategy alongside significant positions in Bitcoin mining firms Bitfarms, Cipher Mining, and Hut 8, complicating the simplistic narrative of a purely bearish stance.

Data Contradicts the Daily Dump Theory

Macro analyst Alex Kruger directly challenged the dump narrative by publishing blockchain data demonstrating that Bitcoin recorded cumulative returns of 0.9% in the 10 a.m. to 10:30 a.m. Eastern window since January 1. Kruger stated that the perceived sell-off is not a systemic dump but rather a broad risk-asset repricing event that tracks the Nasdaq stock index. He wrote on Thursday that he pulled the data himself and the popular theory simply does not hold up under scrutiny.

Even if specific trading strategies amplify short-term volatility around the US open, several market participants argued it remains implausible that any single entity could dominate a global market as deep and fragmented as Bitcoin's.

What Does This Mean for Bitcoin Investors?

Bitcoin's recent price weakness is better explained by macroeconomic forces than by the actions of one trading firm, according to leading analysts. Nick Puckrin, co-founder and lead market analyst at educational platform Coin Bureau, stated that regardless of whether market manipulation occurred, Bitcoin's price is not driven by a single firm no matter how influential. He emphasized that Bitcoin is not a memecoin and should not be treated as one.

Puckrin attributed the softness in Bitcoin to geopolitical uncertainty, shifting global liquidity conditions, and intensifying competition for investor capital from the rapidly expanding artificial intelligence sector. These structural headwinds carry far more weight than any alleged 10 a.m. trading pattern, suggesting investors should focus on macro catalysts rather than conspiracy theories when assessing near-term Bitcoin price direction.