Bitcoin to $30K? Analysts Debate When BTC Price Will Bottom

What to Know

$30,000 to $45,000 -- Multiple analysts project Bitcoin could reach cycle lows in that range during the final quarter of 2026
$65,950 -- BTC dropped 5.5% from Wednesday's $70,000 high as sellers reasserted control on Friday
2.752 million BTC now sits on exchanges, a 1.0% increase over 45 days that signals persistent structural selling pressure
On-chain metrics including supply in profit have fallen to 2022 bear market depths, suggesting further downside ahead

Bitcoin price faces intensifying bear market pressure as several prominent analysts warn that BTC could plunge to as low as $30,000 before finding a cycle bottom, potentially during the last quarter of 2026. Sellers drove the price down 5.5% from Wednesday's peak of $70,000, pushing BTC to $65,950 at the time of writing on Friday. On-chain indicators and technical signals are converging to paint a bleak short-term picture for the leading cryptocurrency.

When Will Bitcoin Hit Its Bear Market Bottom?

Most forecasts now point to a Bitcoin cycle low arriving between October and November 2026, based on historical post-halving patterns. Crypto trader Darky noted in a Friday post on X that the shortest bear market on record lasted 365 days, and Bitcoin is currently only about 140 days into its present downturn. That timeline alone suggests months of additional pain before any meaningful recovery materializes.

CryptoQuant echoed that view, stating that bottoms take time to form and that Bitcoin could reach its cycle lows between June and December of this year, drawing on previous post-halving price structures. Fellow analyst Batman pointed out that prior bear cycles printed their ultimate lows 365 and 396 days after the market top. Since Bitcoin's current all-time high of over $126,000 was established on October 2, 2025, adding those intervals places the projected trough around October to November 2026, according to Batman.

Bitcoin is currently about 140 days into its current bear market. The shortest bear market lasted 365 days.
— Darky, Crypto Trader

On-Chain Metrics Flash Warning Signals

The Bitcoin supply in profit metric has plummeted to levels last witnessed at the nadir of the 2022 bear market, according to data from CryptoQuant. During that earlier downturn, the bottom phase persisted for roughly six months. When the identical downward price trajectory from 2022 is overlaid onto the current chart, it aligns with a projected drawdown of 70% to 75% for the fifth cycle, suggesting Bitcoin could potentially reach a trough between $31,500 and $38,000 approximately six months from now.

Separately, On-Chain College shared analysis showing that Bitcoin has broken below its Long-Term Holder True Cost Basis at $65,700 and needs to reclaim that level as support. Cost basis thresholds function as psychological pivots for investors. When the price trades beneath them, holders face unrealized losses that heighten the risk of distribution. A sustained position below this band tends to amplify investor stress and encourages capitulation selling, according to On-Chain College.

Exchange Reserves Signal Structural Selling Pressure

Bitcoin balance on exchanges has climbed to 2.752 million BTC from 2.723 million in mid-January, representing a net increase of approximately 28,489 BTC -- or 1.0% -- over a span of 45 days, according to on-chain data from CryptoQuant. Growing exchange reserves are widely interpreted as a bearish signal because they indicate holders are positioning coins on trading platforms ahead of potential sell-offs, creating supply that can outpace demand.

Analyst Axel Adler Jr. warned that structural selling pressure will remain intact until exchange reserves retreat below the 2.723 million BTC mark. Multiple analysts have cautioned that 2026 is shaping up as a bear market year, with various forecasts calling for the BTC price to decline as low as $40,000 before any sustained rebound.

Until the reserve turns lower and breaks back below 2.723M BTC, structural selling pressure remains intact.
— Axel Adler Jr., On-Chain Analyst

What This Means Going Forward

The confluence of deteriorating on-chain metrics, swelling exchange balances, and historical cycle timing suggests Bitcoin may have considerable downside remaining before establishing a durable floor. Analysts broadly agree that the $30,000 to $45,000 range represents the most likely zone for a cycle bottom, though the exact timing hinges on whether exchange reserves begin declining and whether the supply in profit metric stabilizes. Investors should monitor the $65,700 Long-Term Holder True Cost Basis as a near-term barometer -- a failure to reclaim that level could accelerate the move toward lower price targets in the months ahead.