Bitcoin Chart Hits Historic Pattern — Worst May Lie Ahead

A bearish Bitcoin chart pattern that historically preceded the deepest phases of prior bear markets has surfaced once more, putting traders on high alert. The crossover on the three-day price chart — the same formation that foreshadowed devastating selloffs in 2018 and 2022 — appeared as BTC slid to roughly $66,100 on February 27, dropping 3% in a single session. Some savvy traders are now preparing for a potential crash below $60,000, though institutional buying has offered a degree of counterbalance.

What Is the Bearish Three-Day Chart Crossover?

The bearish three-day chart crossover is a technical signal in which long-term moving averages flip negative on a chart that bundles 72 hours of price action into each candle. By filtering out short-term noise, the formation becomes especially significant for spotting major trend reversals in Bitcoin's price cycle.

In mid-November 2018, this exact pattern emerged when BTC was near $6,000. Within a week, the price crashed to under $4,500, extending the decline from the peak of roughly $20,000. The same crossover appeared in April 2022 while Bitcoin traded around $32,000. Prices subsequently cratered to $17,500, compounding losses from the late 2021 record of nearly $70,000. In both cases, the three-day chart crossover marked the start of the bear market's most punishing chapter.

Can ETF Inflows and Whale Buying Prevent a Deeper Bitcoin Crash?

Despite the ominous signal, institutional demand remains firm. U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have pulled in over $1 billion in net inflows across three days, according to market data. Iliya Kalchev, an analyst at Nexo Dispatch, said in a statement that the breadth of demand signals absorption rather than speculation.

On-chain data reinforces this view, according to Kalchev. Wallets holding more than 10,000 BTC — commonly known as whales — have been net buyers throughout the pullback from the $70,000 region, suggesting long-term holders are stepping in as available supply thins. Still, Kalchev cautioned that ETF flows need to persist consistently for BTC to move sustainably higher — meaning a single strong week may not be enough to overcome the bearish momentum.

That breadth of demand signals absorption rather than speculation. On-chain data reinforces the shift: wallets holding more than 10,000 Bitcoin have accumulated through the recent pullback from the $70,000 region, suggesting long-term holders are stepping in as supply thins.

— Iliya Kalchev, Analyst at Nexo Dispatch

Macro Headwinds Add to Bitcoin's Bearish Outlook

Global macro conditions are compounding the bearish technical picture. Oil prices remain supported by U.S.-Iran uncertainty and the risk of military escalation, adding to the risk-off environment weighing on crypto assets. Bitcoin recently traded near $66,100, down 3% in 24 hours, while other major tokens and the CoinDesk 20 Index posted even steeper losses on the day.

While past performance is not a guarantee of future results, history demands caution. If the three-day chart crossover plays out as it did in 2018 and 2022, the pullback from the $70,000 area could extend significantly further. The presence of more than $1 billion in recent ETF inflows and aggressive whale accumulation introduces a variable that did not exist in prior bear cycles — but whether that is enough to rewrite the pattern remains an open question for investors watching the weeks ahead.