Bitcoin Eyes Breakdown as US PPI Sends Gold to 1-Month High

What to Know

0.5% -- January PPI came in well above the 0.3% forecast, with core PPI shocking at 0.8%, fueling a risk-off move across markets
$5,200 -- Gold surged to a one-month high while silver touched $92, as safe-haven demand spiked on the hotter inflation print
2.5% -- Bitcoin dropped nearly that much intraday on Bitstamp, extending month-to-date losses close to 17%
Fifth consecutive monthly loss -- BTC/USD is set to record a losing streak unseen since 2018, according to CoinGlass data

Bitcoin price slid toward a fresh breakdown on February 28 after hotter-than-expected US Producer Price Index data rattled risk assets and propelled gold to a one-month high. BTC/USD fell roughly 2.5% on Bitstamp during the session, while gold breached $5,200 per ounce and silver climbed to $92, underscoring a sharp divergence between safe havens and speculative assets as traders absorbed the January inflation print.

January PPI Overshoots Forecasts

The January Producer Price Index registered a 0.5% month-over-month increase, well above the 0.3% consensus, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Core PPI delivered an even larger surprise at 0.8% versus the expected 0.3%, the BLS confirmed.

An official statement noted the January advance in final demand prices stemmed from a 0.8% rise in the services index, while final demand goods prices fell 0.3%. The mixed breakdown did little to calm markets already wary of persistent inflationary pressure.

Odds of a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut at its March meeting plunged below 4%, according to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, as both consumer and producer inflation ran above expectations. The hawkish repricing weighed heavily on risk assets including Bitcoin.

How Does US PPI Data Affect Bitcoin Price?

Elevated PPI figures signal sticky upstream costs, reducing the odds of near-term monetary easing and undermining the bullish case for Bitcoin. When inflation overshoots, the Federal Reserve holds rates higher for longer, strengthening the dollar and drawing capital toward traditional safe havens such as gold and silver.

On Friday, that dynamic played out clearly. Gold surged past $5,200 per ounce to reach its loftiest level since late January, while silver hit $92 for its highest mark since January 30, according to TradingView data. Bitcoin shed nearly 2.5% intraday, amplifying an already painful month for holders.

Analyst Warns of Deeper BTC Drawdown

Crypto trader and analyst Michael van de Poppe cautioned that Bitcoin could replay the early-February selloff that drove BTC/USD to 15-month lows near $59,000. In his latest analysis shared on X, van de Poppe called the current zone critical and said he would strongly favor a scenario where BTC establishes a higher low at $65,000.

Analysts have also highlighted the 200-week exponential moving average and old all-time highs around $69,000 as pivotal resistance barriers that buyers must reclaim to reverse the prevailing bearish trend. Until those levels are retaken, the path of least resistance remains lower.

Pretty crucial area for me to hold on to. I'd highly favor that BTC finds a higher low at $65k.
— Michael van de Poppe, Crypto Trader and Analyst

What This Means Going Forward

Bitcoin is bracing for its fifth consecutive monthly decline, a losing streak absent from the charts since 2018, according to CoinGlass data. At present, BTC/USD performance roughly mirrors that of February 2025, with month-to-date losses approaching 17%.

The convergence of stubborn inflation and fading rate-cut expectations leaves Bitcoin vulnerable heading into the monthly candle close. Should buyers fail to defend the $65,000 zone flagged by van de Poppe, a revisit of $59,000 from early February cannot be ruled out. Reclaiming $69,000 resistance would mark the first meaningful sign of trend reversal in months.