Polymarket Insider Fears: 6 Traders Net $1M on Iran Strike

Polymarket insider trading concerns have erupted after six traders collectively earned roughly $1 million by accurately betting on a US military strike against Iran before the end of February 2026, according to a report citing data from blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps SA. All six wallets were created during February and focused nearly all their activity on contracts predicting the timing of a potential American attack, with some shares purchased hours before the first explosions were reported in Tehran.

Suspicious Wallet Activity Draws Onchain Scrutiny

Each of the six flagged wallets was established in February 2026 and devoted its trading activity almost exclusively to contracts forecasting when the United States might strike Iran, according to the report. In multiple cases, shares were acquired for approximately $0.10 apiece only hours before Tehran came under fire.

The concentrated timing mirrors behavior analysts have previously linked to suspected insider activity on prediction markets. Nicolas Vaiman, chief executive of Bubblemaps, told reporters that information involving military conflict often spreads within a broader circle before reaching the general public.

Vaiman added that because Polymarket requires only a crypto wallet to participate, the platform offers a high degree of anonymity that can incentivize informed participants to act ahead of major events. Polymarket had not responded to a request for comment by publication time.

In cases involving war or conflict, information can circulate within a broader circle before becoming public. Combined with the fact that Polymarket generally only requires a wallet to trade, which allows for a high level of anonymity, this can create incentives for informed participants to act early.

— Nicolas Vaiman, CEO of Bubblemaps

How Much Money Flowed Into Iran Strike Contracts?

More than $529 million poured into strike-related contracts on Polymarket during the US-Iran escalation. The February 28 contract alone attracted roughly $90 million in trading volume, making it the most popular strike-date wager on the platform. A January 31 scenario followed at approximately $42 million.

One of the flagged accounts had previously lost money on an earlier prediction before placing a larger bet that returned more than $170,000, suggesting the trades alone do not prove wrongdoing. Washington had also publicly warned of possible military action for weeks, drawing speculators to the platform.

Growing Pattern of Insider Trading Allegations

The Iran-strike episode is not the only insider trading allegation facing Polymarket. This week, a small cluster of crypto wallets earned more than $1.2 million betting on a contract tied to an onchain investigation into DeFi platform Axiom, shortly before investigator ZachXBT published claims that an Axiom employee had engaged in insider trading since early 2025.

In a separate incident last month, a single Polymarket account earned roughly $400,000 from a well-timed wager on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. The wallet placed approximately $32,000 on Maduro's removal just before the news became public, once again raising insider trading suspicions.

What Legislation Could Change for Prediction Markets?

US Representative Ritchie Torres is preparing a bill called the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 that would directly target insider trading on platforms like Polymarket. The legislation would prohibit elected officials, political appointees, and executive-branch employees from trading contracts tied to government policy or political outcomes when they hold nonpublic information.

Polymarket also faces a growing wave of regulatory pressure worldwide. Several countries, including the Netherlands, Hungary, Belgium, France, Italy, Romania, Poland, Singapore, and Portugal, have moved to block or ban the platform after classifying its event-based contracts as unlicensed online gambling rather than legitimate financial trading.