Bitcoin Undervalued vs Gold Signals Rally, Says Analyst

What to Know

24%-66% — Bitcoin is trading well below its historical trend relative to gold's market cap and the global money supply, according to Jan3 CEO Samson Mow
$5,247.90 — Gold futures closed at record highs on Friday, a level Mow describes as overextended
-1.24 — The BTC-to-gold ratio Z-score currently sits near this level, approaching the -2 threshold that has historically preceded major Bitcoin rallies
Analysts remain divided, with some forecasting a potential drop toward $50,000 due to geopolitical uncertainty

Bitcoin is undervalued relative to gold and may be primed for a significant rally, according to Jan3 CEO Samson Mow. In a Saturday post on X, Mow argued that BTC is roughly 24%-66% below its trend relative to gold's market cap and the global money supply, even as gold has become "overextended" above $5,247 per ounce.

Bitcoin Undervalued While Gold Surges

Gold futures for April delivery closed Friday at $5,247.90, while tokenized gold PAX Gold (PAXG) was trading at roughly $5,404.14 at the time of writing. Samson Mow, the CEO of Bitcoin technology firm Jan3, contends that gold's extended run has opened a widening gap between the two assets.

Mow pointed to the Z-score of the BTC-to-gold ratio as evidence of this dislocation. The Z-score tracks how far BTC's price deviates from its long-term average relative to gold. A reading of 0 means the price aligns with the average, while negative values signal underperformance.

Bitcoin is about 24%-66% below its trend relative to gold's market cap or global money supply, while gold is overextended.
— Samson Mow, CEO of Jan3

What Does the BTC-to-Gold Z-Score Reveal?

The BTC-to-gold ratio Z-score currently stands at approximately -1.24, according to Mow. When this metric drops below -2, Bitcoin has historically staged major price rallies, he noted. The current reading suggests BTC is nearing but has not yet hit the extreme levels that preceded past breakouts.

Data from TradingView shows that the Z-score plunged below -3 in November 2022, coinciding with the collapse of crypto exchange FTX. Bitcoin subsequently rallied by more than 150% over the following 12 months. An earlier instance occurred during the March 2020 Covid crash, when the metric fell below -2 and BTC touched a low of roughly $3,717. The asset then surged over 300% in the subsequent year, reaching its then all-time high of approximately $69,000 by November 2021.

Contrarian View Amid Bearish Forecasts

Mow's assessment runs counter to several market analysts who anticipate further downside. Some forecasters warn that BTC could be headed toward $50,000, citing investor uncertainty and escalating geopolitical tensions. These bearish voices argue that price action may be mirroring the 2022 bear market cycle.

Bitcoin has already declined by over 50% from its peak to a trough near $60,000 before staging a limited recovery. As of this weekend, BTC was trading near $66,400 amid ongoing developments in the Middle East that have weighed on risk assets.

What This Means Going Forward

The split between Mow's bullish thesis and prevailing bearish sentiment highlights the uncertainty gripping crypto markets on March 1, 2026. If the BTC-to-gold Z-score continues declining toward the -2 threshold, historical patterns suggest a substantial rally could follow. However, macro headwinds including a potential 5% U.S. inflation forecast tied to oil prices may keep downward pressure on Bitcoin near term.