Bitcoin May Rebound to $85K as CME Smart Money Slashes Short Bets

Bitcoin is showing signs of potential recovery as recent trading activities in Bitcoin futures indicate a shift in market sentiment. Traders have significantly reduced their bearish bets on Bitcoin, a trend that has historically preceded substantial price rallies. With this shift, analysts suggest that Bitcoin could rebound to around $85,000 in the coming weeks.

Recent shifts in Bitcoin futures sentiment indicate bullish sentiment returning

In the past month, futures traders have cut down their bearish positions on Bitcoin, as reported by the CFTC Commitment of Traders report. Non-commercial traders adjusted their net positions from approximately +1,000 contracts to about -1,600 contracts. This transition indicates that major speculators, including hedge funds, have pivoted from a net short stance to a long position, suggesting that bullish sentiment is gaining traction in the market.

Historical patterns show potential for Bitcoin price recovery to $85,000

Analysts point to historical data showing that similar shifts in sentiment have often led to significant price increases. For instance, a similar trend occurred in April 2025, where a sharp reduction in net shorts was followed by a 70% price surge. Likewise, in 2023, a comparable market condition resulted in a remarkable 190% price increase. Currently, Bitcoin is defending its 200-week exponential moving average, a trendline that has historically acted as a support level during downturns. If Bitcoin can maintain its position above this moving average, it may trigger a rally towards the 100-week EMA, which is projected to be around $85,000 by April.

Cautions for Bitcoin bulls amid ongoing market uncertainty

Despite the positive indicators, analysts urge caution for Bitcoin bulls. The recent shift in sentiment is viewed as a condition rather than a definitive signal for a price recovery. There is a possibility that Bitcoin could still face a decline before establishing a solid low. In 2022, Bitcoin experienced a significant drop after breaking below its 200-week EMA, despite similar oversold conditions at the time. If a similar scenario unfolds this year, Bitcoin could see its price fall to the $40,000 to $50,000 range, which would represent a substantial decline from its recent highs.

Related market activity in Bitcoin futures highlights significant movements

Market analysts are closely observing the activities of Bitcoin futures traders, noting that the current bullish sentiment could attract more investors into the market. The decrease in bearish positions by smart money participants may signal a broader recovery for Bitcoin. However, as the market remains volatile, it is essential for traders and investors to stay informed and cautious about potential risks associated with Bitcoin investments.