Bitcoin Sell-Off: VanEck Says Mid-Cycle Holders Driving Downturn as Whales Stay Steady

Bitcoin has recently experienced a significant sell-off, with new insights from a report by VanEck shedding light on the underlying dynamics. The asset management firm highlights that the current downturn is largely driven by mid-cycle holders, while long-term investors—often referred to as whales—are maintaining their positions. This distinction is crucial for understanding the current state of the cryptocurrency market and its potential future trajectory.

VanEck report sheds light on Bitcoin sell-off dynamics

According to VanEck’s "Mid-November 2025 Bitcoin ChainCheck" report, wallets that last transacted within the past five years are primarily responsible for the recent selling pressure. In contrast, the oldest holders have remained notably stable, despite a backdrop of declining market sentiment. This trend indicates a clear divide between short-term traders and long-term investors, suggesting that the latter group continues to hold their assets with confidence.

Mid-cycle holders are driving recent selling activity

The report reveals that mid-cycle holders, whose coins have changed addresses in the last five years, account for most of the current market activity. These holders have collectively contributed to a notable decline in Bitcoin prices, which recently hovered around $86,696, down 3.2% over the past day and 31.2% from its all-time high of $126,080. This group’s selling activity has increased as they seek to capitalize on price fluctuations, further complicating the market landscape.

Long-term whales showing resilience amid market volatility

In stark contrast to mid-cycle sellers, long-term holders have been remarkably steady. VanEck's analysis indicates that wallets that have not moved their coins for more than five years have continued to accumulate, adding approximately 278,000 BTC to their holdings over the past two years. This behavior suggests that long-term conviction in Bitcoin remains strong, even amid current market turbulence. Analysts attribute the broader downturn to forced liquidations, long-term distribution, and increased volatility in offshore derivatives markets.

Market reset indicates potential for tactical rebound

VanEck's findings also point to a reset in speculative positions within the Bitcoin market. Open interest in Bitcoin perpetual contracts has decreased by 20% in BTC terms and 32% in USD terms since early October, leading to funding rates that resemble periods of prior market washouts. Interestingly, smaller wallets, holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC, have increased their balances by 9% in the last six months. This shift, combined with the stability of long-term holders, suggests that the market may be in a reset phase, which has historically preceded tactical rebounds.

As the market navigates these developments, the interplay between different wallet cohorts and their respective strategies will be essential for understanding future price movements. The current dynamics highlight the importance of distinguishing between short-term traders and long-term investors in the cryptocurrency ecosystem.