Odds of December Fed rate cut plunge to 33% as BTC falls below $89K

By Kevin GiorginNovember 20, 2025 at 02:02 AM GMT+01:00Edited by Josh Sielstad

The financial landscape is shifting rapidly as the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December has decreased significantly. Starting the month with a 67% chance of a cut, recent data shows that this figure has now plummeted to just 33%. This decline in expectations comes alongside a downturn in Bitcoin's price, which has recently dipped below $89,000, triggering a wave of anxiety among investors.

Odds of rate cut drop sharply amid market fear

Initially, traders were optimistic about a potential interest rate cut at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. However, as the market sentiment has soured, these odds have fallen dramatically. Recent statistics from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) reveal that the likelihood of a rate cut dropped below 50% earlier this week. In comparison, traders on other prediction platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket still estimate the odds at around 70% and 67%, respectively. This discrepancy indicates a growing hesitance among investors, largely fueled by ongoing concerns about inflation.

Bitcoin price dips below $89,000 signaling possible bear market

Bitcoin's price has struggled to maintain its footing, falling below the crucial $90,000 mark. This drop marks the second time in recent weeks that it has failed to hold this support level. The cryptocurrency has been trading under its 365-day moving average for the last six days, which is a significant indicator of market performance. Additionally, the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) has crossed below the 200-day EMA, a pattern known as the 'death cross.' This technical signal suggests that further declines may be on the horizon for Bitcoin.

Analysts predict further drop in Bitcoin value amid bearish signals

Market analysts are increasingly concerned about Bitcoin's trajectory, with some projecting a potential drop to $75,000 as a possible bottom before any recovery might occur. Others are questioning whether the peak of this cycle has already been reached. Analyst Benjamin Cowen noted that if Bitcoin does not show signs of recovery within the next week, it may face additional declines before a larger rally could take place. His comments point to the urgency for a bounce-back, as failure to do so could indicate a more prolonged downturn.

Investor sentiment plummets as fear grows in crypto market

The mood among crypto investors has soured significantly, with the 'Crypto Fear & Greed Index' currently sitting at 16, reflecting a state of 'extreme fear.' This places investor sentiment just one point above its yearly low, highlighting the growing unease within the market. As Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies continue to face downward pressure, the potential for a prolonged bear market looms larger, raising alarms for traders and investors alike.

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Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.