Bitcoin Faces Further Downside as Iran Strikes U.S. Bases

What to Know

$63,000 — Bitcoin held above this level on Saturday as Iran launched retaliatory strikes against U.S. bases across the Gulf
$70,000 — The cryptocurrency had already slid from this mark earlier in the week after initial Israeli strikes on Iran
$60,000 — Analysts warn this support floor could be tested if traditional markets gap lower when they reopen on Monday
5% — Oil-linked futures on Hyperliquid surged after the U.S.-Israel strike on Iran reignited supply-shock fears

Bitcoin faces further downside risk after Iran launched sweeping missile and drone attacks against U.S. military bases throughout the Middle East on February 28, escalating an Israeli strike on Iran into the region's broadest military confrontation in decades. The cryptocurrency held above $63,000 as the retaliatory wave hit, having already slid from $70,000 earlier in the week, and analysts warn a second leg of selling could emerge once traditional markets reopen.

Iran Expands Strikes Beyond Israel to Gulf States

Iran targeted not only Israel but American military installations across the Gulf, according to Bloomberg, CNN, and Reuters. Bahrain confirmed a U.S. military base on its territory had been struck, while Qatar and the United Arab Emirates said they intercepted missiles over their airspace. Explosions were heard in Dubai, and Bahrain closed its airspace entirely.

Iran's semi-official Tasnim news agency declared that every American base and interest in the region would be targeted. President Trump responded by announcing the United States had begun "major combat operations in Iran" aimed at eliminating the country's missile stockpiles, naval assets, and nuclear infrastructure. "The lives of courageous American heroes may be lost and we may have casualties," Trump said. "That often happens in war."

The lives of courageous American heroes may be lost and we may have casualties. That often happens in war.
— President Trump

How Could the Conflict Affect Bitcoin Price?

Bitcoin's relative steadiness above $63,000 on Saturday is partly a function of thin weekend liquidity. Many leveraged positions that would have amplified a sell-off were already flushed during the week's decline from $70,000. The real stress test arrives when equities, oil, and bond markets reopen — Sunday evening futures at the earliest, with the full session beginning Monday.

Bitcoin is one of the few large, liquid assets that trades around the clock, so it tends to absorb the first wave of geopolitical selling before other markets react. If equities and commodities gap sharply lower at the open, portfolio managers may de-risk across every asset class simultaneously, potentially pushing bitcoin toward $60,000 or below.

Historical Pattern Faces a Tougher Test

Previous Middle East escalations have followed a pattern where bitcoin drops on the initial shock then recovers once traditional markets absorb the news and the crisis appears contained. Iran's retaliatory strikes on Israel in April 2025 played out that way, as did tensions in 2020. This time, however, the containment thesis is far harder to sustain.

Missiles landing in Dubai, Kuwait, and Bahrain is not a bilateral exchange — it is a regional war touching some of the most economically sensitive territory on the planet.

What This Means Going Forward

The downside risk is straightforward. If the conflict broadens, oil prices could surge on both sides of the Atlantic, fueling global risk aversion and deeper cryptocurrency losses. While bitcoin is often characterized as digital gold, it has historically traded more like a risk asset than a safe haven during acute geopolitical events.

The $60,000 floor that held during the February 5 crash becomes the next line of defense, and it will be tested under far more severe conditions than a leverage flush. Oil-linked futures on Hyperliquid's HIP-3 platform already surged 5% after the U.S.-Israel strike, underscoring how quickly energy markets are repricing supply-shock risk.