BTC's 5-Month Slide: Why Bitcoin Eyes Worst Run Since 2018

Bitcoin is on the verge of recording its fifth straight monthly decline, a losing streak not seen since the depths of the 2018-2019 bear market. With BTC trading around $64,000 as February draws to a close, the flagship cryptocurrency has shed more than 25% year to date and is staring down its first-ever consecutive January-February losses. The deterioration extends beyond price action alone: the bitcoin-to-gold ratio has sunk to 12.288 ounces, reflecting a 70% drawdown over the past 14 months, according to market data. The five-month run of losses underscores deepening unease across the digital asset landscape as macro headwinds and capital flight from spot Bitcoin ETFs compound the pressure.

Bitcoin's Worst Month Since Terra-Luna Collapse

February's decline of nearly 20% makes it Bitcoin's most punishing month since the Terra-Luna implosion in June 2022, when prices cratered by roughly one-third. The slump also represents BTC's worst 50-day start to any calendar year on record, according to historical performance data. Geopolitical friction has bolstered the U.S. dollar and pushed crude oil prices higher, tightening financial conditions and dragging down risk assets across the board.

Yet one detail sets this downturn apart from prior episodes: Bitcoin's erratic relationship with equities. While U.S. stock indices have held up relatively well, BTC has dramatically underperformed, creating an unusual gap in the asset's typical risk-on correlation. Bitcoin is also approaching a fifth consecutive weekly loss, a pattern not observed since the March-to-May 2022 stretch when the crypto market was reeling from cascading failures across lending platforms.

What we're seeing isn't just weakness. It's repricing inside a structural regime shift.

— Mati Greenspan, Senior eToro Market Analyst and Founder of Quantum Economics

Why Is Bitcoin Underperforming Gold and Equities?

Bitcoin lacks a compelling market narrative right now and is being pressured from multiple directions, according to Jonatan Randin, senior market analyst at PrimeXBT. He pointed to $3.8 billion in ETF outflows accumulated over the previous five weeks, intensifying tariff disputes, and a Federal Reserve that has not yet indicated imminent rate cuts as key headwinds. Safe-haven demand has flowed into gold instead, while equities have ridden momentum from artificial intelligence enthusiasm.

The divergence between Bitcoin and gold has been particularly striking. Gold has rallied approximately 48% since September, while Bitcoin has tumbled roughly 41% over the same span, according to Randin. That gap illustrates how investors continue to treat BTC as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset rather than a digital store of value, despite years of narrative positioning as so-called digital gold.

Correlation data underscores the instability. The 20-day BTC-Nasdaq correlation swung from -0.68 to +0.72 between early and mid-February, according to Randin. He characterized the readings not as decorrelation but as outright instability, noting that when a risk-on trade is working and one asset gets left behind, that typically signals weakness rather than strength.

Bitcoin doesn't have a narrative right now, and it's getting squeezed from both sides.

— Jonatan Randin, Senior Market Analyst at PrimeXBT

How Far Could Bitcoin's Correction Go?

Despite a 52% decline from the October highs, Randin cautioned against assuming the worst is over. Previous bear markets have produced drawdowns of 80% or greater, meaning the current correction could realistically represent only the halfway mark. While the weekly relative strength index has plunged to its lowest reading in Bitcoin's entire history and accumulator addresses have absorbed roughly 372,000 BTC since late December — conditions often linked to cycle bottoms — Randin noted that similar setups in prior downturns preceded another 30% to 40% decline before a definitive low materialized.

Near-term technical levels remain in focus. Randin identified $60,000 as a critical support threshold, with the 200-week moving average sitting near $58,500 just below it. Until Bitcoin manages to reclaim the $68,000 to $72,000 zone, he expects the losing streak to grind forward rather than snap cleanly. A failure to hold $60,000 could open the door to a test of levels not seen since the early stages of the previous cycle.

Structural Bulls See a Different Picture

While tariffs, ETF redemptions, and macro anxiety may explain the timing of the selloff, Mati Greenspan of Quantum Economics argued they fail to account for the deeper forces at play. He characterized the move as a broader recalibration in how markets assign value to risk assets during an era of heightened uncertainty. The fundamental Bitcoin narrative, he maintained, has not changed since 2009: a global, neutral alternative to debt-based fiat systems.

Greenspan suggested that sentiment may already reflect the bulk of prevailing pessimism. When bearish conviction reaches extreme uniformity while long-term fundamentals remain intact, reversals tend to arrive swiftly and forcefully, he said. He also offered a contrarian reading of the equity divergence: if stocks are still priced as cyclical growth exposure while Bitcoin begins to trade more like a sovereign hedge, that gap could prove structurally bullish over time. The losing streak narrative centers on five months of pain, he added, but the structural story stretches across decades.

When correlations break during regime shifts, it's usually not random. It's early repricing.

— Mati Greenspan, Senior eToro Market Analyst and Founder of Quantum Economics