Bitcoin 5-Month Losing Streak May Not End in March at $70K

What to Know

$70,000 resistance continues to cap Bitcoin's price after a brief spike to $70,040 on Wednesday
14% decline in February marks Bitcoin's fifth consecutive red month, according to CoinGlass data
Three resistance levels near $70K have converged, including the 200-week EMA at $68,330 and the 2021 ATH at $69,000
A breakout above $74,500 could signal the end of the bear market, with a potential reversal beginning in April

Bitcoin's losing streak has stretched to five consecutive months, and a cluster of resistance levels near $70,000 suggests the slide may carry into March. Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD trading around $67,720 after bulls failed to sustain a midweek push above the key psychological barrier.

Three Resistance Levels Block Bitcoin's Rebound

Bitcoin faces a convergence of three resistance levels that have merged into a single barrier zone. The 200-week exponential moving average sits at $68,330, the 2021 all-time high rests at $69,000, and the psychological level stands at $70,000. BTC briefly touched $70,040 on Wednesday before sellers pushed prices back down, confirming the strength of overhead supply.

Analyst Captain Faibik stated that Bitcoin needs a weekly candlestick close above the 200-week EMA for bulls to maintain momentum. If that close materializes, the market could see a bounce toward $80,000 in the days that follow, according to Faibik.

We can then expect a bounce back toward 80k in the coming days.
— Captain Faibik, Analyst

Why Has Bitcoin Posted Five Straight Red Months?

Bitcoin has posted five consecutive monthly declines, with February's 14% drop the latest, according to data from CoinGlass. This marks the longest run of red monthly candles since the depths of the 2018 bear market. The last time BTC recorded five straight losing months was between August 2018 and January 2019, when the asset plunged 57%.

Analyst Alex noted that Bitcoin is nearing a rare bearish streak that historically precedes sharp reversals. After the 2018-2019 slide, Bitcoin logged five consecutive green months and surged 317% from $3,329 to $13,880. That precedent has fueled speculation that a similar turnaround could emerge on the horizon.

Bear Market End Hinges on $74,500 Cost Basis

The broader bear market may conclude if Bitcoin reclaims the cost basis of the 18-to-24-month holding cohort at $74,500, according to on-chain analysis. A breakout above that level would signal that medium-term holders have returned to profit. At current prices near $67,720, BTC remains roughly $6,780 below that critical threshold.

Clearing all three resistance levels near $70,000 would be a necessary first step, but the $74,500 cost basis represents the more decisive barrier for confirming a trend reversal.

What Comes Next for Bitcoin Price?

If history repeats, the reversal could begin as early as April 2026, particularly as selling pressure nears exhaustion levels. The 2018 parallel shows that extended losing streaks in Bitcoin often precede explosive recoveries once capitulation runs its course.

For now, the immediate battle remains at $70,000. A decisive weekly close above the 200-week EMA at $68,330 would mark the first step toward ending Bitcoin's five-month losing streak, while failure could extend the drawdown into a sixth consecutive red month.