Buying Bitcoin? Hold for 3+ Years to Skip Losses, Data Says

Buying Bitcoin and holding it for a minimum of three years has historically eliminated nearly all risk of loss, according to data from Bitwise Europe published on Saturday. Andre Dragosch, head of research at the firm, shared an analysis spanning July 17, 2010, through February 11, 2026, showing that the probability of ending in the red drops to just 0.70% over any rolling three-year window. The findings arrive as BTC trades roughly 50% below its October 2025 peak.

How Long Should You Hold Bitcoin to Avoid Losses?

Holding Bitcoin for three years or longer has virtually guaranteed positive returns throughout the asset's history, according to the Bitwise Europe study. The analysis found that any rolling three-year entry point between 2010 and 2026 carried just a 0.70% probability of loss. Extending the window to five years pushed the risk to 0.2%, and at the ten-year mark, loss probability reached 0%.

Short-term holders faced dramatically worse odds. Intraday buyers saw a 47.1% chance of being in the red, while one-week holders had a 44.7% probability of loss. Stretching the window to one month only reduced the figure to 43.2%, and one-year holders still contended with a 24.3% risk of ending underwater. The data underscores a divide between traders chasing quick gains and investors willing to ride out multi-year cycles.

The realized price metric reinforces these conclusions. As of Saturday, Bitcoin was changing hands near $65,000, roughly half its October 2025 peak. The three-to-five-year realized price sat at just $34,780, meaning investors who purchased during that window were still enjoying approximately 90% in unrealized gains.

Short-Term Holders Bear the Brunt of the Correction

More recent buyers were faring far worse. The six-month-to-twelve-month cohort carried a cost basis of roughly $101,250, translating into an unrealized loss of about 35% at Saturday's prices. The one-to-two-year cohort, with a cost basis near $78,150, faced a comparatively modest 15% drawdown.

The gap highlights a recurring pattern in Bitcoin market cycles: the longer the holding period, the smaller the pain during corrections. If the ongoing Bitcoin price correction extends toward the $30,000 level some traders have flagged, it would erode the cushion enjoyed by three-to-five-year holders and test whether long-term conviction holds or seasoned holders begin adding to sell pressure.

Where Do Analysts See Bitcoin Heading Next?

Despite the steep pullback, several prominent forecasters maintain bullish outlooks for 2026 and 2027. Global brokerage firm Bernstein reiterated its $150,000 Bitcoin price target for 2026, noting that net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs had been relatively modest at around 7% even as BTC lost half its value.

Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani characterized the selloff as a temporary setback rather than a structural breakdown. Standard Chartered, meanwhile, warned that a "final capitulation" phase could drag Bitcoin toward $50,000 amid weakening ETF flows and a tougher macro backdrop, before a recovery toward $100,000 by the close of 2026.

Looking further ahead, Timothy Peterson's historical average-return framework points to $122,000 by early 2027, with elevated odds that Bitcoin trades above that level. These projections suggest that investors who commit to a multi-year holding strategy may be rewarded, even if near-term volatility tests their resolve.

The current Bitcoin price action is a mere crisis of confidence.

— Gautam Chhugani, Bernstein Analyst

What This Means Going Forward

The Bitwise Europe dataset delivers a clear message for anyone buying Bitcoin today: patience measured in years, not months, has been the most reliable way to avoid losses. With the asset near $65,000 and short-term holders sitting on significant unrealized losses, the temptation to sell may be intense. Yet history shows that those who endured previous corrections of similar magnitude were almost universally rewarded within a three-year window.

Whether Bitcoin reaches the $100,000-$150,000 targets projected by Bernstein and Standard Chartered or dips toward $50,000 first, the overarching takeaway is consistent: time in the market has overwhelmingly trumped timing the market for Bitcoin investors.